Jul 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3453
The present work analyzes the registered cases of Covid-19 throughout the world according the data registered at Johns Hopkins University. We selected 15 countries to analyze their data. In alphabetical order the countries are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Spain, United States and Venezuela. With this information, three different studies were carried out. First, the data was validated using Benford's Law which is based on forensic techniques that allow us to guarantee the integrity of the information. Later, we calculated the value of the basic reproduction number (R0), ie., the number of secondary host infections caused by one primary host infection that helps us to determine if a country has an outbreak of Covid-19. Finally, we show that the best representation for the change in the number of cases in the time is to calculate the mantissa value, ie., the floating number obtained from the logarithm of the data.
May 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3376
The goal of this paper is to analyze the registered cases of people who have been infected with Covid-19 registered from throughout the world, using a digital forensic analysis technique that is based on Benford's Law. Twenty-three countries were randomly chosen for this analysis: China, India, Germany, Brazil, Venezuela, Netherlands, Italy, Colombia, Russia, Norway, South Africa, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Denmark, Ireland, France, Belgium, Australia and Croatia.. We calculate on the p-values based on Pearson χ2 and Mantissa Arc Test according to the results obtained with the first digit. If any country fails these two tests, a third proof will be carried out based on the Freedman-Watson test. The results indicated that results from Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Denmark, Belgium and Chile are suspicions of data manipulation because the numbers fail the Benford’s Law according to the results obtained until April 30, 2020. However, it is necessary to carry out further studies in these countries in order to ensure that they countries manipulate or altered the information.