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Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2639-3166.jar-21-3703
Since a decade in Apulia, south-east of Italy, an increasing number of olive trees developed the quick decline syndrome (OQDS) leading to partial or total dessication of the canopy and subsequent death. Currently six million of olive trees show the symptoms of the decline, despite the mitigation measures which were undertaken to contrast the progression of the dessication. Associated with the syndrome, several phytopathogenic fungi were detected in the rhizosphere, endosphere and phyllosphere of the trees, along with the phytopathogenic bacterium Xylellafastidiosasubsp. pauca. Alongside, other pathogenic events were clearly identified, mostly defeating soil resilience: salinization, pollution, erosion, decline of biodiversity. Further events include delays in the adoption of appropriate mitigation measures not directed to challenge solely a bacterial pathogen, misuse of the territory, erratic agronomic management practices. The OQDS impacted also societal aspects. All the above concurrent causes strongly suggest that (1) the olive quick decline in Apulia is not a too symplistic epidemic outbreak due to a bacterium, but rather a syndemic outbreak formed by several diverse biotic and abiotic pathologies and (2) only a more holistic approach can help coping with the uncertainties and difficulties of an enduring co- existance with this syndemic events.
Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3383
With the spread of the new coronavirus around the world, governments of various countries have begun to use the mathematical modeling method to construct some virus transmission models assessing the risks of spatial spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19, while carrying out epidemic prevention work, and then calculate the inflection point for better prevention and control of epidemic transmission. This work analyzes the spread of the new coronavirus in China, Italy, Germany, Spain, and France, and explores the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the number of new coronavirus infections and time. In investigating the dynamics of a disease such as COVID-19, its mathematical representation can be constructed at many levels of details, guided by the questions the model tries to help answer. Mathematical sophistication may have to yield to a more pragmatic approach closer to the ability to make predictions that inform public health policies. Background In December 2019 , the first Chinese patients with pneumonia of unknown cause is China admitted to hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Jinyintan , since then, COVID-19 in the rapid expansion of China Wuhan, Hubei, in a few months time, COVID-19 is Soon it spread to a total of 34 provincial-level administrative regions in China and neighboring countries, and Hubei Province immediately became the hardest hit by the new coronavirus. In an emergency situation, we strive to establish an accurate infectious disease retardation growth model to predict the development and propagation of COVID-19, and on this basis, make some short-term effective predictions. The construction of this model has Relevant departments are helpful for the prevention and monitoring of the new coronavirus, and also strive for more time for the clinical trials of Chinese researchers and the research on vaccines against the virus to eliminate the new corona virus as soon as possible. Methods According to the original data change law, Establish a Logistic growth model, we collect and compare and integrate the spread of COVID-19 in China, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, record the virus transmission trend among people in each country and the protest measures of relevant government departments. Findings Based on the analysis results of the Logistic model model, the Logistic model has a good fitting effect on the actual cumulative number of confirmed cases, which can bring a better effect to the prediction of the epidemic situation and the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. Interpretation In the early stage of the epidemic, due to inadequate anti-epidemic measures in various countries, the epidemic situation in various countries spread rapidly. However, with the gradual understanding of COVI D -19, the epidemic situation began to be gradually controlled, thereby retarding growth
Dec 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3670
Purpose This paper assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Education, Staff development and Training in Africa. Online Research Methodology/Approach The data use in this paper was generated from online survey questionnaire, in which the participants were asked about certain questions in which covid-19 affect their social-economic situation. The questionnaire was design to help Africa to understand covid-19 impacts on their social and economic live. Results The results of this study reveal that coronavirus pandemic affected Africa in a number of ways; 1) 52.2 percent of the respondents said they should open school now in Africa, while 47.8 percent fear they should not open schools 2) 81 percent said before educational institution are closed there is public or official announcement that institutions must be closed due to pandemic—may be 3 months, ……,,…,, one week it depends on the severity of how covid-19 is spreading across the regions in Africa, 10.7 percent of the respondent said it may be and only 8.3 percent said it is not official announced.3) 65.4 percent of the respondents said government implemented an education response for continue of learning in Africa while educational institutions are closed 4) 61.5 percent said use of online/digital learning platform is the method for continuity of learning is currently available for children affected by closures of educational institutes provided by government, while 50 percent said television, radio, or podcast broadcast and 17.9 percent said assigning reading and exercises for home study. 5) 45.3 percent out of 100 percent said use of online or digital learning platform are the proportion of children affected by education institution closure. 38.7 percent said the proportion of children affect are the one that concentrate of using television, radio or podcast broadcasts to get academic content. 14.7 percent of the respondents are the proportion of the children affected by educational institute closure if they are assigning reading and exercises for home study. 6) 52.6 percent of the respondents from non-government organization, private schools said use of online or digital learning platform is the method for continuity of learning is currently available for children affected by closures of educational institutes, while 61.5 percent said use of online/digital learning platform is the method for continuity of learning is currently available for children affected by closures of educational institutes provided by government. The same thing government said as well. Similar respondents from government as do the non-government or private schools and 35.9 percent respondent said television, radio and podcast broadcast are method for continuity of learning is currently available for children affected by closures of educational institutes-provided by non-governmental organization, private schools etc, whereas 50 percent of the respondents said assigning reading and exercises for home study is the method for continuity of learning is currently available for children affected by closures of educational institutes-provided by government.7) 48.1 percent of the respondents said for the impact of covid-19 pandemic on staff development and training that their enterprise or organization partially suspended operation due to the pandemic and 34.2 percent of the responded said they completely suspended operation because of coronavirus pandemic and 16.5 percent said no closures on in operation for staff development and training because of pandemic. 8)According to the results of this question of the online survey, 49.3 percent said the challenges their enterprise face in delivery staff training programmes and activities using online learning or offline learning during covid-19 was due to infrastructure issues such the problem associated with internet and the like. The survey of the study also confirmed that 32.9 percent twice said limited digital skills of trainers and cost of staff training was a major setback to train staff in their enterprise or organization or department or establishment while 30.1 percent said it is due to limited digital literacy of users are the main challenges face by their department in order to train staff. Policy Implications The implication of the results from this online survey is that it has serious impacts on education closure and staff development and training. As educations are closed due to covid-19 pandemic, it will affect already problems of human capital that are hampering the development of Africa. Due to covid-19 pandemic, the achievement of sustainable development goals on quality education will be seriously halted. The government and the ministry in Africa should work hand in hand to solve the problems of children affected by schools closure after the pandemic by either additional hours or provide more study hours for schools to catch-up with what happened during the pandemic, the study noted. Originality/value The impact of covid-19 on education, staff development and training.
Aug 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3498
The paper proposes a new visualization scheme for the registry of Covid-19 cases by calculating the mantissa of the registered ones, so there is no need of performing complicated mathematical calculations. As an example, six countries are randomly selected: Australia, Brazil, China, Colombia, Portugal and Venezuela. The results show that China is the only country that keeps the epidemic under control, while Australia begins a new outbreak after having previously controlled the epidemic. Colombia and Portugal show a very similar behavior of registered cases and, finally, we can see that Venezuela, Brazil, Portugal, and Colombia present a growth of cases that may trigger new outbreaks in the future. Results are obtained from data registered at Johns Hopkins University until July 18th, 2020.
Jan 2017 DOI 10.14302/issn.2577-137X.ji-16-1139
We describe seasonal influenza-like illness (ILI) outbreaks in long-term care facilities in the Health Service Executive (HSE) East area of Ireland in the 2013/2014 influenza season, risk factors associated with outbreak duration and attack rates, and management challenges. Separate questionnaires were distributed to 28 facilities who reported an outbreak and to public health specialists leading outbreak management, with a 79% response rate. Mean outbreak duration (21 vs 17 days; p=0.046) was longer in facilities with staff vaccination rates of <40%. Facilities with a high attack rate (≥50%) were less likely to have an outbreak plan (p=0.03). Smaller facilities (under 50 residents) had a higher attack rate (50% vs 23%, p=0.003) even when controlled for staff vaccination rate (p=0.01). Prior to the outbreak, resident vaccination rates were high (82%, above the World Health Organization target of 75%) but staff vaccination rates were low (39%). Reported challenges to ILI outbreak management in long term care facilities included visitor restrictions, staff education issues, outbreak notification delays and lack of outbreak lead in facilities. Targeted public health-assisted planning, training and response, comprising of staff vaccination, education, written policies, with early notification and prompt response would facilitate a more co-ordinated approach to the management of outbreaks, and reduction in infection rates and consequent morbidity.
Dec 2015 DOI 10.14302/issn.2372-6601.jhor-15-799
Objective: Hospital construction work, among other environmental factors, is a risk factor for invasive aspergillosis (IA). Methods: We retrospectively surveyed the incidence of IA in hematology-oncology patients before and during hospital construction and studied the effectiveness of prophylactic oral itraconazole (ITCZ) treatment. We compared the rates of galactomannan (GM)-positive cases and probable IA cases among 224 patients discharged before the start of construction work and among 67 patients hospitalized within two months after the start of the construction work. Results: Our results showed that, during the 12 months before the construction work was started, only four patients were GM-positive, and one had a probable diagnosis; in contrast, among patients hospitalized within two months from the start of the construction work, seven patients were GM-positive, and four had a probable diagnosis. Therefore, we started to administer oral ITCZ to 40 patients with hematological diseases. Although the construction work continued, after the ITCZ prophylaxis, no new probable cases of IA were detected. Conclusion: From our experience, GM surveillance among hematological patients is necessary during hospital construction work, and the administration of ITCZ to prophylactically prevent IA is suggested upon detection of an increase in GM-positive patients.
Dec 2025 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-25-5731
Background Typhoid fever remains a significant public health issue in Harare City, Zimbabwe, exacerbated by recurrent outbreaks between 2018 and 2020. Key challenges, including inadequate water supply and sanitation infrastructure, high population density, and limited healthcare access, have intensified the disease burden. Understanding the key transmission drivers and assessing the impact of various interventions are essential for informing policy and health strategies. Objectives This study aimed to: 1: To predict future trends in typhoid fever cases Harare City typhoid hot areas. 2: To develop a mathematical model to simulate the spread of typhoid fever incidence under different intervention scenarios and recommend evidence-based strategies for reducing the disease burden in Harare City. Methods A dynamic compartmental SIR-based model, adapted from the Pitzer Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) framework, was employed to simulate disease transmission. This model accounted for both short-cycle (human-to-human) and long-cycle (environmental) transmission pathways. Data from Harare City (2018–2020) were used for model calibration and forecasting, and sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of different intervention levels. Findings The model identified inadequate sanitation, contaminated water sources, and low health- seeking behaviors as primary drivers of typhoid transmission. In the absence of interventions, the model projected a sustained high rate of transmission. However, treatment and WASH interventions could reduce the disease burden by 50–60%, while combined strategies incorporating vaccination and education led to an 80% reduction in cases. Sensitivity analysis indicated that treatment and WASH interventions were particularly impactful at moderate coverage levels. Conclusion Mathematical modeling effectively demonstrated the multifactorial drivers of typhoid fever transmission in Harare. Integrated interventions that combine WASH, vaccination, treatment, and education present the most promising approach for long-term control of the disease. The findings offer a solid, data-driven foundation for public health decision-making and resource allocation.
Jul 2025 DOI 10.14302/issn.2766-8681.jcsr-25-5618
Humanity is persistently threatened by global pandemics- exemplified by the Black plague, the Spanish flu, and COVID-19, which reveal a continual absence of concern in real-time prevention. To forecast biological threats in the future and spur proactive human response, the term Global Biological Consciousness (GBC) is introduced.GBC requires an Extended Bioethics, a dynamic ethical framework for conscious management mediated by GBC. This perspective will enable preventive actions and will seek global biological resilience through the algorithmic responsibility of AI and systemic justice, as will be explained in the work. The GBC, through Extended Bioethics, will provide an ability to analyze biological data as it occurs using AI and quantum computing, expect outbreaks before they happen and attenuate their effects, here creates a new ethical contract for all humankind as they co-exist in a biological world.
May 2024
Waterborne diseases pose a significant global public health threat, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where frequent outbreaks occur. These diseases stemming from contaminated drinking water, poor waste management, and insufficient hygiene contribute to high morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years old. A study addressed waterborne diseases in N'Djamena, Chad's 3rd and 9th districts, through decision-making strategies. The research employed various methods, including a household survey using questionnaires, workshops, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Additionally, documentary research provided essential data for analysing the situation of diseases in the community. Epidemiological data from 2019- 2022 indicated a substantial prevalence of diseases such as diarrhoea, dysentery, skin infections, typhoid, abdominal pain, and malaria, with notable mortality, especially among children. Among surveyed households, 50% believed the consumed water was contaminated, attributing it to faecal matter, while 28% and 22% linked the diseases to inadequate hygiene and unsanitary conditions, respectively. The study advocates for comprehensive strategies, including improving water treatment efficiency, implementing safe waste management, promoting hygiene, and vaccination. Active involvement of all stakeholders, with municipal authorities leading, is crucial for effective implementation and combating waterborne diseases.
Apr 2023 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-23-4529
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global health and economies. The pandemic continues to spread and accurate forecasting of its spread is essential for the effective management of healthcare systems and the development of effective policies. The development of forecasting models for COVID-19 has become increasingly important as the pandemic continues to evolve. In this paper, we will summarize the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States state by state. And then, we utilize the temporal data of coronavirus spread from January 18, 2020 to January 29, 2023. Finally, we model the evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak and perform prediction using ARIMA and time series forecasting models on some selected states.
Oct 2022 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-22-4338
Corona pandemic resulted in huge burden on health care service sectors. Although pharmaceutical is the one of the largest industry in the world and predominant in health care services yet sudden outbreak of disease has questioned our ability of fighting back. The people across the globe have become more aware regarding health and wellness, hence they looking for other natural, reliable, affordable and available options. The nutraceuticals or functional foods are expected to have various health benefits and people are looking for more advance nutraceuticals for better immunity. An intensive exploratory study was conducted in one of the most reputed Banerjee’s Clinic located at Khamtarai region, Raipur, Chhattisgarh where 237 female participated in the questionnaire survey. The study result revealed that majority of women (52%) age 34-41 years use neutraceuticals for better health and to boost their immunity. Furthermore, the females who are working both public and private sectors and are financially independent are aware of health benefits of nutraceuticals/functional foods and spend on nutraceuticals for overall wellness. Moreover, the women preferred tablets form of nutraceuticals rather than powder or liquid form as mode of consumption.The study further shows that women who are professionals prefer to take daily functional foods or nutraceuticals for good health, immunity and beauty.
Mar 2022 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-22-4108
In this work we present how it is possible to visualize the different coronavirus outbreaks from the calculation of the mantissa from the daily record of cases by Covid-19.This curve can also indicate the speed of propagation of the disease from the calculated infection rate. These conclusions are derived from the respective calculations in four different countries: Australia, Brazil, Italy, and Venezuela.
Jan 2022 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-21-4044
This paper attempts to present the dissemination and transmission dynamics of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases and the underlying features of gain-of-function research and geopolitics in the ambient within and across borders. Research and publication are relevant from perspectives in the management of local and global health because disease is perspicuously a geopolitical issue ostensibly linked to gain-of-function research where health diplomacy undergirds present and future global functionalities regarding the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases. These have generated vehement reactions with propensity for extreme geopolitics and gain-of-function natural and anthropogenic activities. Geopolitical parameters and gain-of-function issues impact on the social determinants of health and vice versa. The convening and convergence of countries for unprecented epidemic or pandemic treaty settings or other formulations to confront emerging and reemerging infectious diseases will afford considerable opportunities concerning challenges in action, preparedness and response. Provisions are pertinent for legal instruments, effective and efficient systems to curb future threats and outbreaks of infectious diseases.
Oct 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2324-7339.jcrhap-21-3961
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has severely affected the whole world. It has overshadowed all the developmental activities across different countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economy and has threatened health security of people worldwide. This pandemic have affected environment dynamically. Decrease in economic activities, travelling, transport and traffic restrictions all over the world have led to decreased emissions of greenhouse gases and drop in air and water pollution observed universally. Also more than 40 % of downfall is observed in NO2 concentration in Asia and Europe as compared to 2019. Reduced pollution had a good effect on freshwater aquatic life. The reduction in worldwide aircraft flight directly impact on forecast and decreases 65% of weather prediction. Snow fall was observed even in a summer in India. This pandemic has had a long-term impact, affecting all aspects of human life and halting all developmental processes. Combating the COVID-19 pandemic is currently at the top of the global agenda. Quarantine measures opted for safety of the public have positively affected the environment. Although it has downturned the economic growth drastically, it has also contributed in lowering the pollution. If there is a silver lining to this horrible situation, it may be that it has given us a whiff of the air we will breathe in a low-carbon future.
Sep 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2690-4837.ijip-20-3944
Background Infection prevention and control system in healthcare facilities is essential in dealing with the spread of infectious diseases, especially during an outbreak period such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Objectives The study assessed the infection prevention and control (IPC) situation in selected healthcare facilities in the Greater Accra and Ashanti Regions of Ghana during the Covid-19 pandemic. Methods This was a multi-facility based cross-sectional study that used a monitoring tool of the Health Facilities Regulatory Agency (HeFRA) of Ghana to collect information on the IPC practices at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Data was gathered from 501 healthcare facilities in the Greater Accra (335) and Ashanti (151) Regions. Descriptive, Chi-square, and multiple logistic regression were performed. All statistical analyses were considered significant at an alpha level of 0.05. Results 50.6% of health facilities were assessed as having good IPC systems in the overall assessment. The majority of the health facilities were evaluated as good on governance/leadership. Similarly, the majority (54.3 %)of the facilities had effective infectious waste management. The assessment levels of governance/leadership, management, quality assurance system, human resource, IPC equipment, and water management were all significantly associated with the adherence to good IPC systems. Conclusion IPC systems in most facilities were assessed as good, but some areas require critical attention to help prevent the spread of infections in healthcare facilities in Ghana. Support systems such as revised policy on IPC, governance/leadership, and infectious waste management infrastructure are needed to strengthen facilities with weak or poor IPC systems.
Jun 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-21-3626
A perspective situates SARS-CoV-2 within longstanding public health challenges, emphasizing preparedness, surveillance, and the recurrent lessons of outbreak management with examples for practice.
Jun 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-21-3758
“Health Promoting Village” concept named as “Happy Villages” started in 2007 in Badulla District in Uva Province was a community mobilization process through which village communities have been empowered to look after their community health. The areas included were Early Childhood Care and Development (ECCD), Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) prevention , Alcohol and drug abuse. Gender Based Violence. The programmed used many interactive tools as “Mood Chart” or “Happiness Calendar” which was giving a visualizing effect. Continuous assessments done from 2009 to 2013 showed that the Health promotion strategies used in the Happy Village concept in the Uva Province can effectively and efficiently be utilized for improvement of nutrition and achievement of milestones in children. From 2017 a National program is launched named “Happy Villages”. During the Covid 19 outbreak health promotion approaches were initiated to change in lay communities successfully. Villagers had actively engaged, collectively acted in responsible manner, and identified measures to prevent COVID-19 transmission in their households, neighbourhood and community. The use of village empowerment had become a fruitful source to face the Covid pandemic in Sri Lanka. Almost 300 “Happy Villages” around the country have made facing the Covid epidemic their chief task. Many innovative ideas and practices in facing Covid 19 pandemic at village level including a visualizing calendar to identify the risk behaviours of the family members as well as the Happiness calendar to identify the family stress levels are among them. Health promotion concept is getting rooted around the country with active participation of the villages with a multisectoral support. Continuous monitoring and evaluation and sharing best practices will show the world the effectiveness of Health Promotion and the ability of empowered people in facing pandemic situations
May 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-21-3632
Introduction Reporting of suspected or confirmed communicable diseases is paramount. Although physicians have primary responsibility for reporting, school nurses, laboratory directors, infection control practitioners, daycare center directors, health care facilities, state institutions and any other individuals providing health care services are also required to report communicable disease. Therefore, community health needs assessment in urban communities remains an essential instrument for the rapid and accurate dissemination of epidemiological information on cases and outbreaks of diseases under the national health regulations and other communicable diseases of public health importance, including emerging or re-emerging infections. Purpose of the Study Todescribe relevant medical needs of townspeople so that treatment plans can be developed accordingly. Methods The Study was a cross-sectional with qualitative approach. In-depth interviews and focus group interviews was used as research technique. Data was categorized to look for emerging themes then further distilled to identify any abstract themes that could be understood holistically. Results Urban decision-makers need to advocate the problem of human resources in public health facilities and the mutual health insurance to revise its insurance policy to allow their clients to be received even in private clinics. Dental services was wished to be available in public health centers. Study participants suggested that new useful information could be posted in private public premises rather than to be in public institutions only. Conclusion The patient waiting time, dental services in health centers, and the way of dissemination new health information, mutual health insurance and insufficient human resources are the major concerns of townspeople that they wish improvement.
Apr 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-21-3776
COVID-19 has unprecedentedly shaken the health systems across the globe. Rwanda, a low-income country in East Africa, has succeeded to contain the first wave but is struggling to curb the second wave in the wait for a massive vaccination program. The national committee composed of different ministries and a COVID-19 Joint Task Force was established as a Multi-sectoral approach in the early days of the pandemic. The approach together with transparent communication to the population has been effective. However, much more tailored and cost-effective measures against the drivers of cluster outbreaks are needed to save both the economy and more lives. It is challenging to produce evidence about behaviors attributable to the surge of infections, and their hardship, and how to allow the population to live their lives with less risk. With important research, policymakers will be able to think locally and provide easy and inexpensive recommended behaviors while awaiting the vaccine.
Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3685
The current uncontrollable outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has unleashed severe global consequences in all aspects of life and society, bringing the whole world to a complete halt and has modeled significant threats to the global economy. The COVID-19 infection manifests with flu-like symptoms such as cough, cold, and fever resulting in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), lung dysfunction, and other systemic complications in critical patients are creating panic across the globe. However, the licensed vaccine has started to show up; some resulted in side effects that would limit its possibility in some circumstances as allergic personnel, for example. Moreover, the production and approval of new drugs is a very complicated process and takes a long time. On the other hand, stem cells have gone the extra mile and intensively investigated at preclinical and clinical studies in various degenerative diseases, including infectious ones. Stem cells are proposed as a broad-spectrum therapeutic agent, which may suppress the exaggerated immune response and promote endogenous repair by enhancing COVID-19 infected lung microenvironment. Also, stem cells have different application manners, either direct transplantation, exosome transplantation, or drug delivery of specific cytokines or nanoparticles with antiviral property by engineering stem cells. This review discusses and summarizes the possible emerging role of cell-based therapy, especially stem cell therapy, as an alternative promising therapeutic option for the treatment and control of novel COVID-19 and its potential role in tissue rejuvenation after COVID-19 infection.
Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2766-8681.jcsr-21-3701
Background The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) suddenly appeared in Wuhan, Hubei since December 2019, and quickly swept across China, then the whole world. Today, after more than 100 days of fighting against the virus, China's epidemic has been effectively controlled, but when we looking at the entire world, the novel coronavirus has rampaged globally, especially in the United States and many European countries. This paper mainly studies the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks at Hubei Province and the United States, fits the given data and predicts future trends. Methods Based on the theoretical basis of traditional differential equations and SIR infectious disease model1, and combined with the actual situation to improve the model. Hubei Province is modeled in different time periods, and the effects of birth rate and natural mortality on the model are analyzed. Since the birth rate and natural mortality in the United States in recent years cannot be found, the epidemic situation in the United States can only be analyzed based on the absence of births and natural deaths. Finally, we used Netlogo2 to establish a closed environment (Small World), and combined with known data to conduct simulation experiments on COVID-19 infection. Findings Through the analysis of given data through the SIR model, it is found that before the Chinese government has taken comprehensive measures to cure patients (before 10 February), the number of patients in Hubei Province will reach the peak at the end of February, and will gradually decline thereafter, and on 20 March, the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the future, which coincides with the fact that Wuhan closed the last mobile cabin hospital on 10 March. On the other hand, after the Chinese government tried its best to cure the patients (after 21 February), the number of patients continued to decline over time and will reach 0 in mid-April, which is also consistent with the actual data. According to the factors of birth and natural death, the sensitivity analysis of the above model found that when the epidemic situation is at its peak, it has little effect on the curve, but when the epidemic situation gradually flattens, it still has a certain effect on the trend of the curve. Finally, looking at the situation in the United States, due to the high transmission rate, the number of patients in the United States continues to rise and is expected to reach its maximum in mid-June. We also use Netlogo to simulate the environment in which the virus spread, and find that the general trend of the curves is also consistent with the actual curves. Interpretation The Chinese government has taken various measures to deal with the novel coronavirus pneumonia, including the establishment of two temporary hospitals and dozens of sheltered hospitals, the temporary transformation of university dormitories into isolation rooms345, the closure of Wuhan, the ban on the movement of people and so on. These measures have helped to reduce the spread of the virus and greatly increased the patient's cure rate. But the US government ’s actions are not as effective as China’s, not only because the government ’s actions are inappropriate and untimely, and the people’s opposition to isolation has not subsided. As a result, the virus has spread widely in the United States. More than one million people have been infected with the virus, and tens of thousands of people have died from COVID-196.
Dec 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3635
This work characterizes the transmission dynamics of the cases registered by Covid-19 in Venezuela. The needed input data were obtained from the official gazettes issued by the Government of Venezuela, from March 15 to September 9, 2020. Later, the value of the mantissa was determined, revealing the impact of the different outbreaks with special attention to the events at the baseball stadium in Nueva Esparta State, and the Las Pulgas Market located in Maracaibo. Finally, a mathematical model based on four epidemic waves revealed that the cases are increasing significantly over time after the episode that occurred in the Las Pulgas Market.
Oct 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3587
The work analyzes the dynamics of transmission of infections by the new coronavirus in twelve European countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Romania, Czech Republic, and Portugal, whose data from contagion were obtained by Johns Hopkins University until September 24, 2020. The study confirmed that this new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) surprised all the countries of the world that had to improve their public health policies to confront this disease according to the results obtained from the calculation of the mantissa. Although the countries were able to improve their policies after the first wave of contagion, Spain and France have the highest proportion of cases that stand out significantly with the rest of the countries in the second wave of infections that the world faces again. Likewise, the beginning of the epidemic outbreak was determined, which could help to track the spread of the disease through European countries (not the first case registered in each country), from which it can be inferred that the outbreak begins in Italy and later the rebound begins in Germany, France, and Spain. Within days, it significantly affects Greece and Austria, reaching Denmark, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Croatia. Finally, the number of people who must be vaccinated to counteract the advance of Covid-19 in these European countries was determined based on the calculation of the Effective Reproductive Number, Rt. The number of people that would have to be vaccinated in all these countries to counteract this disease sums up to 206.830.361.
Sep 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2694-2275.jzr-20-3537
This study investigated the potential pathogenic bacteria that are associated with domestic dog stool in Port Harcourt Metropolis. Convenience sampling techniques were used for sample collection outcome. A total of fifty dog stool samples were collected aseptically into a sterile stool container from different locations (Agip Estate, Rumuokoro Community, Government Residential Area, Sand-fill Borokiri, Port Harcourt Township, and Rivers State University lecturers’ quarters) all within Port Harcourt City. Bacteriological analysis was determined using standard microbiological analytical and identification techniques. Statistical analysis was performed using Statistical Package for Social Science version 21 for frequency, percentage, prevalence rate and correlation at 0.01 and 0.05 level of significance. Potential pathogens with associated percentages that were isolated are E coli (20.0%), Klebsiella species (16.0%), Pseudomonas species (4.0%), Proteus species (28.0%), Bacillus species (4.0%), Staphylococcus aureus (14.0%), and unidentified [other Staphylococcus species] (4.0%). However, the research further revealed that Proteus species (28.0%), was the most prevalent pathogen, while Bacillus species (4.0%), Pseudomonas species (4.0%), and Streptococcus species (4.0%), were the least prevalent among pet dogs studied. The correlation analysis showed no significant relationship between isolates with socio-demographic data of pet owner and Pet biodata respectively. From the analysis, correlation coefficient values of .269 and .124 were obtained for Age of Pet Owner and Gender of Owner respectively. It also show a direct correlation but by implication, a very weak, non-significant (p<0.05) relationship existed between the organisms isolated and the variables (Age of Pet Owner and Gender of Pet Owner). However, no relationship exists between isolates and visit to vet Doctor (r-0.038; p>0.05). Furthermore, negative non-significant correlation (p>0.05) was observed for marital status of Pet Owner (r=-.158) and Age of Pet (r=-.023) and isolate. Also, correlation association between isolates and some risk factors using the correlation analysis matrix revealed an indication of an indirect but moderate association between isolates and Caressing (r=-.347, p=0.01). However, other risk factors like vaccination (r=.042), Feeding Pattern(r=.125), Pet Bathing (r=.220) and Eating with pet in same plate (r=.146), did not prove statistical significance at p>0.05. The results from the study strongly suggest that pet dogs carry potential pathogenic organisms in their faecal matter that can serve as a source of infection to the pet owners. It is, therefore, very critical that these pets should be treated and possibly vaccinated frequently, even as their faecal matters should be well disposed to prevent possible zoonotic infectious epidemic outbreak in our global communities.
Jul 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3453
The present work analyzes the registered cases of Covid-19 throughout the world according the data registered at Johns Hopkins University. We selected 15 countries to analyze their data. In alphabetical order the countries are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Spain, United States and Venezuela. With this information, three different studies were carried out. First, the data was validated using Benford's Law which is based on forensic techniques that allow us to guarantee the integrity of the information. Later, we calculated the value of the basic reproduction number (R0), ie., the number of secondary host infections caused by one primary host infection that helps us to determine if a country has an outbreak of Covid-19. Finally, we show that the best representation for the change in the number of cases in the time is to calculate the mantissa value, ie., the floating number obtained from the logarithm of the data.
Jun 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-20-3442
The Covid-19 pandemic has swept rapidly from Wuhan, China to the entire globe in less than six months, infecting over 7 million people and claiming the lives of over 500,000. In the United States, greater than 2 million individuals have become infected and over 110,000 people killed. With no evidence of slowing of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, public health authorities must prepare for possible sustained transmission of Covid-19, or a second wave into the Fall 2020, but with the presence of the influenza A virus. In the Fall 2020, schools will reopen from kindergarten to 12th grade. Dual pandemics or epidemics will result in high morbidity and mortality not observed when either virus was solely active. Community leaders, educational administrators and public health systems must be prepared for simultaneous outbreaks of both Covid-19 and influenza. Although there are no clinical studies that have evaluated the benefits on the use of face masks during an epidemic or pandemic, public health non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPIs) measures should include the routine use of face masks during school sessions. Using face masks with other NPI may interrupt viral transmission as it has been established that respiratory viruses, such as Covid-19 and the influenza virus are transmitted via respiratory droplets, aerosols, and environmental surface contact.
May 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3355
Telemedicine and telehealth technologies are especially effective during epidemic outbreaks, when health authorities recommend implementing social distance systems. Currently, coronavirus COVID-19 has affected 210 countries around the world, killed more than 200,000 and infected more than 3 million, according to worldometer, April 26, 2020. Home-care is especially important in these situations because hospitals are not seemingly safe during pandemic outbreaks. Also, the chance to get out of the home during the lockdown period is limited. Telephone-based measures improve efficiency by linking appropriate information and feedback. It can also help provide education at distance on various health issues and topics. In addition to increasing access to healthcare, telemedicine is a fruitful and proactive way to provide a variety of benefits to patients seeking healthcare; diagnose and monitor critical and chronic health conditions; improve healthcare quality and reduce costs. The article reveals scope of pharmacy professionals in telemedicine sector during epidemic outbreaks.
May 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3367
We explore the global evidence of major health crisis potential impacts and the factors influencing the mental health outcomes among the population during the outbreak of COVID-19. Preparation measures for a COVID-19 focus on rapid quarantine of social isolation and economic concerns have risen metal health considerations that become an integrated part of the pandemic outbreak. This outbreak of novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is swayed an overall 213 countries, areas or territories, with over 2,921,439 confirmed cases and 203,289 confirmed deaths reported till 26 April 2020. This created a lot of strain and fear; fear of falling ill and dying of being infected leading to heightened levels of insurmountable psychological pressure. This scrutiny attempt to assess the widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 on mental health professionals, healthcare workers and general population in association with adverse mental health sequelae like generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), depressive symptoms, insomnia, panic attacks, post-traumatic stress disorder, OCD, suicidal behavior, delirium, psychosis, harmful alcohol consumption, and drug use. There is a need for more evocative exploration to intensify awareness to address the potential psychological and behavioral risks that will remain elevated as long as the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the community. In conclusion, incessant surveillance of the subsyndromal mental health problems for outbreaks should be part of galvanized global action during the quarantine.
Dec 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2639-3166.jar-19-3116
Foliar pH is a specific multifaceted parameter that is sensitive to a deficit in soil water and to temperature variations. It also represents a tool that can be used to rapidly phenotype the symbiosis induced in several crops by bio-fertilizers containing Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi. Yearly decreases in foliar pH, which dropped from 3.73 in 2015 to 3.15 in 2017 and then stabilized at around 3.13, have been observed in an experimental vineyard near Torino (Italy) in six grapevine cultivars. In this paper, these curious, original results have been paired with the average sunspots of the 24th sun cycle, proximal to its endpoint. The paired values were highly correlated (r 0.95 P< 0.01), with close parabolic patterns. A lowering in foliar pH has been correlated with a modification of the leaf composition, as characterized by the higher hydration and reinforced wall. An increase in the circulating acidity of the plants has been hypothesized to interfere in a diminution in the general predisposition to block parasite attacks. From this perspective, the retrieval of several historic outbreaks and the long-term systematic monitoring of mud and Erwinia amylovora frequencies have suggested that the hypothesis that links the solar minima with dysfunctions of the plant-pest relationships cannot always be rejected. Cosmic influences pertaining to UV variations are poorly understood in plant physiopathology. Foliar pH appears to be a rapid and simple tool to unveil high-level mechanisms. It is this simple parameter that physiologists and geneticists, but also agronomists, are asked to consider.
Nov 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2379-7835.ijn-19-3083
Background In November 2014, the World health Organization (WHO), in collaboration with United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the World Food Programme, produced interim guidelines (iGL) on providing nutritional support to patients in Ebola treatment units (ETUs). They have been translated into French and issued by the Ministry of Health, UNICEF and WHO in adapted versions to be used in the current outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This paper evaluates the use and usefulness of the 2014 iGL in the West Africa and current DRC Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks and identifies experiences and lessons learned from practitioners on the operational aspects of nutritional care and support in ETUs. Methods Key-informants (n=26), from 12 organizations (Non-Governmental Organizations, United Nations, Red Cross Red Crescent Movement) were interviewed who were actively engaged in the nutritional and/or clinical care of EVD patients. Results There was a consensus among key-informants that the 2014 iGL initially served a guiding purpose. However, the vast amount of learning from the 2014-2016 and current EVD outbreaks indicates that the interim guidelines need to be revised. Practitioners struggled to find operational solutions for nutritional care, and the challenges were plentiful, especially regarding 1) the different perceptions of the importance of nutritional care among ETU staff; 2) the difficulties around food preparation and distribution for EVD patients; 3) how to take into account the patients’ dietary preferences; 4) the nutritional care needed in relation to specific EVD symptoms; 5) who assumed roles in nutritional care in ETUs; 6) if and how feeding support was organized; 7) whether malnutrition needed to be addressed and how; and 8) whether the intake of specific nutrients could contribute to improved treatment outcomes. Information from the key-informants interviews resulted in numerous lessons learned and recommendations for nutritional support during current and future outbreaks. Conclusions This investigation underscored the importance of documenting experiences of practitioners on nutritional care in emerging infectious diseases for which limited scientific evidence exists and for which interim guidelines are produced to fill in knowledge gaps. It also emphasized the importance of nutritional care in ETUs during treatment.
Aug 2018
This brief report summarizes equine influenza activity in South America, noting clinical presentation, transmission dynamics, and recent outbreaks. It reviews vaccination strategies, biosecurity measures, and surveillance needs for controlling spread. Practical guidance is provided for veterinarians and stable managers to reduce risk during regional circulation.
Aug 2017
Iclaprim is a novel bacterial dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor in Phase 3 clinical development for the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections and hospital acquired bacterial pneumonia caused by Gram-positve bacteria. Daptomycin, linezolid and vancomycin are commonly used antibiotic for these indications. With increase selective pressure to these generic antibiotics, outbreaks of bacterial resistance to these antibiotics have been reported. This in vitro study evaluated the activity of iclaprim against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates, which were also not susceptible to daptomycin, linezolid or vancomycin. Iclaprim had an MIC ≤1 µg/ml to the majority of MRSA isolates that were nonsusceptible to daptomycin (5 of 7 71.4%), linezolid (26 of 26 100%), or vancomycin (19 of 28 66.7%). In time-kill curves analyses, iclaprim demonstrated ≥3 log10 reduction in CFU/mL at 4-8 hours for tested strains and isolates nonsusceptible to linezolid or vancomycin. Together these data support the use of iclaprim in serious infections caused by MRSA nonsusceptible to daptomycin, linezolid or vancomycin.