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Aug 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3498
The paper proposes a new visualization scheme for the registry of Covid-19 cases by calculating the mantissa of the registered ones, so there is no need of performing complicated mathematical calculations. As an example, six countries are randomly selected: Australia, Brazil, China, Colombia, Portugal and Venezuela. The results show that China is the only country that keeps the epidemic under control, while Australia begins a new outbreak after having previously controlled the epidemic. Colombia and Portugal show a very similar behavior of registered cases and, finally, we can see that Venezuela, Brazil, Portugal, and Colombia present a growth of cases that may trigger new outbreaks in the future. Results are obtained from data registered at Johns Hopkins University until July 18th, 2020.
Jan 2017 DOI 10.14302/issn.2577-137X.ji-16-1139
We describe seasonal influenza-like illness (ILI) outbreaks in long-term care facilities in the Health Service Executive (HSE) East area of Ireland in the 2013/2014 influenza season, risk factors associated with outbreak duration and attack rates, and management challenges. Separate questionnaires were distributed to 28 facilities who reported an outbreak and to public health specialists leading outbreak management, with a 79% response rate. Mean outbreak duration (21 vs 17 days; p=0.046) was longer in facilities with staff vaccination rates of <40%. Facilities with a high attack rate (≥50%) were less likely to have an outbreak plan (p=0.03). Smaller facilities (under 50 residents) had a higher attack rate (50% vs 23%, p=0.003) even when controlled for staff vaccination rate (p=0.01). Prior to the outbreak, resident vaccination rates were high (82%, above the World Health Organization target of 75%) but staff vaccination rates were low (39%). Reported challenges to ILI outbreak management in long term care facilities included visitor restrictions, staff education issues, outbreak notification delays and lack of outbreak lead in facilities. Targeted public health-assisted planning, training and response, comprising of staff vaccination, education, written policies, with early notification and prompt response would facilitate a more co-ordinated approach to the management of outbreaks, and reduction in infection rates and consequent morbidity.
Dec 2025 DOI 10.14302/issn.2643-2811.jmbr-25-5731
Background Typhoid fever remains a significant public health issue in Harare City, Zimbabwe, exacerbated by recurrent outbreaks between 2018 and 2020. Key challenges, including inadequate water supply and sanitation infrastructure, high population density, and limited healthcare access, have intensified the disease burden. Understanding the key transmission drivers and assessing the impact of various interventions are essential for informing policy and health strategies. Objectives This study aimed to: 1: To predict future trends in typhoid fever cases Harare City typhoid hot areas. 2: To develop a mathematical model to simulate the spread of typhoid fever incidence under different intervention scenarios and recommend evidence-based strategies for reducing the disease burden in Harare City. Methods A dynamic compartmental SIR-based model, adapted from the Pitzer Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) framework, was employed to simulate disease transmission. This model accounted for both short-cycle (human-to-human) and long-cycle (environmental) transmission pathways. Data from Harare City (2018–2020) were used for model calibration and forecasting, and sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of different intervention levels. Findings The model identified inadequate sanitation, contaminated water sources, and low health- seeking behaviors as primary drivers of typhoid transmission. In the absence of interventions, the model projected a sustained high rate of transmission. However, treatment and WASH interventions could reduce the disease burden by 50–60%, while combined strategies incorporating vaccination and education led to an 80% reduction in cases. Sensitivity analysis indicated that treatment and WASH interventions were particularly impactful at moderate coverage levels. Conclusion Mathematical modeling effectively demonstrated the multifactorial drivers of typhoid fever transmission in Harare. Integrated interventions that combine WASH, vaccination, treatment, and education present the most promising approach for long-term control of the disease. The findings offer a solid, data-driven foundation for public health decision-making and resource allocation.
Jul 2025 DOI 10.14302/issn.2766-8681.jcsr-25-5618
Humanity is persistently threatened by global pandemics- exemplified by the Black plague, the Spanish flu, and COVID-19, which reveal a continual absence of concern in real-time prevention. To forecast biological threats in the future and spur proactive human response, the term Global Biological Consciousness (GBC) is introduced.GBC requires an Extended Bioethics, a dynamic ethical framework for conscious management mediated by GBC. This perspective will enable preventive actions and will seek global biological resilience through the algorithmic responsibility of AI and systemic justice, as will be explained in the work. The GBC, through Extended Bioethics, will provide an ability to analyze biological data as it occurs using AI and quantum computing, expect outbreaks before they happen and attenuate their effects, here creates a new ethical contract for all humankind as they co-exist in a biological world.
May 2024
Waterborne diseases pose a significant global public health threat, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where frequent outbreaks occur. These diseases stemming from contaminated drinking water, poor waste management, and insufficient hygiene contribute to high morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years old. A study addressed waterborne diseases in N'Djamena, Chad's 3rd and 9th districts, through decision-making strategies. The research employed various methods, including a household survey using questionnaires, workshops, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Additionally, documentary research provided essential data for analysing the situation of diseases in the community. Epidemiological data from 2019- 2022 indicated a substantial prevalence of diseases such as diarrhoea, dysentery, skin infections, typhoid, abdominal pain, and malaria, with notable mortality, especially among children. Among surveyed households, 50% believed the consumed water was contaminated, attributing it to faecal matter, while 28% and 22% linked the diseases to inadequate hygiene and unsanitary conditions, respectively. The study advocates for comprehensive strategies, including improving water treatment efficiency, implementing safe waste management, promoting hygiene, and vaccination. Active involvement of all stakeholders, with municipal authorities leading, is crucial for effective implementation and combating waterborne diseases.
Mar 2022 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-22-4108
In this work we present how it is possible to visualize the different coronavirus outbreaks from the calculation of the mantissa from the daily record of cases by Covid-19.This curve can also indicate the speed of propagation of the disease from the calculated infection rate. These conclusions are derived from the respective calculations in four different countries: Australia, Brazil, Italy, and Venezuela.
Jan 2022 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-21-4044
This paper attempts to present the dissemination and transmission dynamics of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases and the underlying features of gain-of-function research and geopolitics in the ambient within and across borders. Research and publication are relevant from perspectives in the management of local and global health because disease is perspicuously a geopolitical issue ostensibly linked to gain-of-function research where health diplomacy undergirds present and future global functionalities regarding the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases. These have generated vehement reactions with propensity for extreme geopolitics and gain-of-function natural and anthropogenic activities. Geopolitical parameters and gain-of-function issues impact on the social determinants of health and vice versa. The convening and convergence of countries for unprecented epidemic or pandemic treaty settings or other formulations to confront emerging and reemerging infectious diseases will afford considerable opportunities concerning challenges in action, preparedness and response. Provisions are pertinent for legal instruments, effective and efficient systems to curb future threats and outbreaks of infectious diseases.
May 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-21-3632
Introduction Reporting of suspected or confirmed communicable diseases is paramount. Although physicians have primary responsibility for reporting, school nurses, laboratory directors, infection control practitioners, daycare center directors, health care facilities, state institutions and any other individuals providing health care services are also required to report communicable disease. Therefore, community health needs assessment in urban communities remains an essential instrument for the rapid and accurate dissemination of epidemiological information on cases and outbreaks of diseases under the national health regulations and other communicable diseases of public health importance, including emerging or re-emerging infections. Purpose of the Study Todescribe relevant medical needs of townspeople so that treatment plans can be developed accordingly. Methods The Study was a cross-sectional with qualitative approach. In-depth interviews and focus group interviews was used as research technique. Data was categorized to look for emerging themes then further distilled to identify any abstract themes that could be understood holistically. Results Urban decision-makers need to advocate the problem of human resources in public health facilities and the mutual health insurance to revise its insurance policy to allow their clients to be received even in private clinics. Dental services was wished to be available in public health centers. Study participants suggested that new useful information could be posted in private public premises rather than to be in public institutions only. Conclusion The patient waiting time, dental services in health centers, and the way of dissemination new health information, mutual health insurance and insufficient human resources are the major concerns of townspeople that they wish improvement.
Apr 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-21-3776
COVID-19 has unprecedentedly shaken the health systems across the globe. Rwanda, a low-income country in East Africa, has succeeded to contain the first wave but is struggling to curb the second wave in the wait for a massive vaccination program. The national committee composed of different ministries and a COVID-19 Joint Task Force was established as a Multi-sectoral approach in the early days of the pandemic. The approach together with transparent communication to the population has been effective. However, much more tailored and cost-effective measures against the drivers of cluster outbreaks are needed to save both the economy and more lives. It is challenging to produce evidence about behaviors attributable to the surge of infections, and their hardship, and how to allow the population to live their lives with less risk. With important research, policymakers will be able to think locally and provide easy and inexpensive recommended behaviors while awaiting the vaccine.
Jan 2021 DOI 10.14302/issn.2766-8681.jcsr-21-3701
Background The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) suddenly appeared in Wuhan, Hubei since December 2019, and quickly swept across China, then the whole world. Today, after more than 100 days of fighting against the virus, China's epidemic has been effectively controlled, but when we looking at the entire world, the novel coronavirus has rampaged globally, especially in the United States and many European countries. This paper mainly studies the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks at Hubei Province and the United States, fits the given data and predicts future trends. Methods Based on the theoretical basis of traditional differential equations and SIR infectious disease model1, and combined with the actual situation to improve the model. Hubei Province is modeled in different time periods, and the effects of birth rate and natural mortality on the model are analyzed. Since the birth rate and natural mortality in the United States in recent years cannot be found, the epidemic situation in the United States can only be analyzed based on the absence of births and natural deaths. Finally, we used Netlogo2 to establish a closed environment (Small World), and combined with known data to conduct simulation experiments on COVID-19 infection. Findings Through the analysis of given data through the SIR model, it is found that before the Chinese government has taken comprehensive measures to cure patients (before 10 February), the number of patients in Hubei Province will reach the peak at the end of February, and will gradually decline thereafter, and on 20 March, the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the future, which coincides with the fact that Wuhan closed the last mobile cabin hospital on 10 March. On the other hand, after the Chinese government tried its best to cure the patients (after 21 February), the number of patients continued to decline over time and will reach 0 in mid-April, which is also consistent with the actual data. According to the factors of birth and natural death, the sensitivity analysis of the above model found that when the epidemic situation is at its peak, it has little effect on the curve, but when the epidemic situation gradually flattens, it still has a certain effect on the trend of the curve. Finally, looking at the situation in the United States, due to the high transmission rate, the number of patients in the United States continues to rise and is expected to reach its maximum in mid-June. We also use Netlogo to simulate the environment in which the virus spread, and find that the general trend of the curves is also consistent with the actual curves. Interpretation The Chinese government has taken various measures to deal with the novel coronavirus pneumonia, including the establishment of two temporary hospitals and dozens of sheltered hospitals, the temporary transformation of university dormitories into isolation rooms345, the closure of Wuhan, the ban on the movement of people and so on. These measures have helped to reduce the spread of the virus and greatly increased the patient's cure rate. But the US government ’s actions are not as effective as China’s, not only because the government ’s actions are inappropriate and untimely, and the people’s opposition to isolation has not subsided. As a result, the virus has spread widely in the United States. More than one million people have been infected with the virus, and tens of thousands of people have died from COVID-196.
Dec 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3635
This work characterizes the transmission dynamics of the cases registered by Covid-19 in Venezuela. The needed input data were obtained from the official gazettes issued by the Government of Venezuela, from March 15 to September 9, 2020. Later, the value of the mantissa was determined, revealing the impact of the different outbreaks with special attention to the events at the baseball stadium in Nueva Esparta State, and the Las Pulgas Market located in Maracaibo. Finally, a mathematical model based on four epidemic waves revealed that the cases are increasing significantly over time after the episode that occurred in the Las Pulgas Market.
Jun 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2641-4538.jphi-20-3442
The Covid-19 pandemic has swept rapidly from Wuhan, China to the entire globe in less than six months, infecting over 7 million people and claiming the lives of over 500,000. In the United States, greater than 2 million individuals have become infected and over 110,000 people killed. With no evidence of slowing of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, public health authorities must prepare for possible sustained transmission of Covid-19, or a second wave into the Fall 2020, but with the presence of the influenza A virus. In the Fall 2020, schools will reopen from kindergarten to 12th grade. Dual pandemics or epidemics will result in high morbidity and mortality not observed when either virus was solely active. Community leaders, educational administrators and public health systems must be prepared for simultaneous outbreaks of both Covid-19 and influenza. Although there are no clinical studies that have evaluated the benefits on the use of face masks during an epidemic or pandemic, public health non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPIs) measures should include the routine use of face masks during school sessions. Using face masks with other NPI may interrupt viral transmission as it has been established that respiratory viruses, such as Covid-19 and the influenza virus are transmitted via respiratory droplets, aerosols, and environmental surface contact.
May 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3355
Telemedicine and telehealth technologies are especially effective during epidemic outbreaks, when health authorities recommend implementing social distance systems. Currently, coronavirus COVID-19 has affected 210 countries around the world, killed more than 200,000 and infected more than 3 million, according to worldometer, April 26, 2020. Home-care is especially important in these situations because hospitals are not seemingly safe during pandemic outbreaks. Also, the chance to get out of the home during the lockdown period is limited. Telephone-based measures improve efficiency by linking appropriate information and feedback. It can also help provide education at distance on various health issues and topics. In addition to increasing access to healthcare, telemedicine is a fruitful and proactive way to provide a variety of benefits to patients seeking healthcare; diagnose and monitor critical and chronic health conditions; improve healthcare quality and reduce costs. The article reveals scope of pharmacy professionals in telemedicine sector during epidemic outbreaks.
May 2020 DOI 10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3367
We explore the global evidence of major health crisis potential impacts and the factors influencing the mental health outcomes among the population during the outbreak of COVID-19. Preparation measures for a COVID-19 focus on rapid quarantine of social isolation and economic concerns have risen metal health considerations that become an integrated part of the pandemic outbreak. This outbreak of novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is swayed an overall 213 countries, areas or territories, with over 2,921,439 confirmed cases and 203,289 confirmed deaths reported till 26 April 2020. This created a lot of strain and fear; fear of falling ill and dying of being infected leading to heightened levels of insurmountable psychological pressure. This scrutiny attempt to assess the widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 on mental health professionals, healthcare workers and general population in association with adverse mental health sequelae like generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), depressive symptoms, insomnia, panic attacks, post-traumatic stress disorder, OCD, suicidal behavior, delirium, psychosis, harmful alcohol consumption, and drug use. There is a need for more evocative exploration to intensify awareness to address the potential psychological and behavioral risks that will remain elevated as long as the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the community. In conclusion, incessant surveillance of the subsyndromal mental health problems for outbreaks should be part of galvanized global action during the quarantine.
Dec 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2639-3166.jar-19-3116
Foliar pH is a specific multifaceted parameter that is sensitive to a deficit in soil water and to temperature variations. It also represents a tool that can be used to rapidly phenotype the symbiosis induced in several crops by bio-fertilizers containing Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi. Yearly decreases in foliar pH, which dropped from 3.73 in 2015 to 3.15 in 2017 and then stabilized at around 3.13, have been observed in an experimental vineyard near Torino (Italy) in six grapevine cultivars. In this paper, these curious, original results have been paired with the average sunspots of the 24th sun cycle, proximal to its endpoint. The paired values were highly correlated (r 0.95 P< 0.01), with close parabolic patterns. A lowering in foliar pH has been correlated with a modification of the leaf composition, as characterized by the higher hydration and reinforced wall. An increase in the circulating acidity of the plants has been hypothesized to interfere in a diminution in the general predisposition to block parasite attacks. From this perspective, the retrieval of several historic outbreaks and the long-term systematic monitoring of mud and Erwinia amylovora frequencies have suggested that the hypothesis that links the solar minima with dysfunctions of the plant-pest relationships cannot always be rejected. Cosmic influences pertaining to UV variations are poorly understood in plant physiopathology. Foliar pH appears to be a rapid and simple tool to unveil high-level mechanisms. It is this simple parameter that physiologists and geneticists, but also agronomists, are asked to consider.
Nov 2019 DOI 10.14302/issn.2379-7835.ijn-19-3083
Background In November 2014, the World health Organization (WHO), in collaboration with United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the World Food Programme, produced interim guidelines (iGL) on providing nutritional support to patients in Ebola treatment units (ETUs). They have been translated into French and issued by the Ministry of Health, UNICEF and WHO in adapted versions to be used in the current outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This paper evaluates the use and usefulness of the 2014 iGL in the West Africa and current DRC Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks and identifies experiences and lessons learned from practitioners on the operational aspects of nutritional care and support in ETUs. Methods Key-informants (n=26), from 12 organizations (Non-Governmental Organizations, United Nations, Red Cross Red Crescent Movement) were interviewed who were actively engaged in the nutritional and/or clinical care of EVD patients. Results There was a consensus among key-informants that the 2014 iGL initially served a guiding purpose. However, the vast amount of learning from the 2014-2016 and current EVD outbreaks indicates that the interim guidelines need to be revised. Practitioners struggled to find operational solutions for nutritional care, and the challenges were plentiful, especially regarding 1) the different perceptions of the importance of nutritional care among ETU staff; 2) the difficulties around food preparation and distribution for EVD patients; 3) how to take into account the patients’ dietary preferences; 4) the nutritional care needed in relation to specific EVD symptoms; 5) who assumed roles in nutritional care in ETUs; 6) if and how feeding support was organized; 7) whether malnutrition needed to be addressed and how; and 8) whether the intake of specific nutrients could contribute to improved treatment outcomes. Information from the key-informants interviews resulted in numerous lessons learned and recommendations for nutritional support during current and future outbreaks. Conclusions This investigation underscored the importance of documenting experiences of practitioners on nutritional care in emerging infectious diseases for which limited scientific evidence exists and for which interim guidelines are produced to fill in knowledge gaps. It also emphasized the importance of nutritional care in ETUs during treatment.
Aug 2018
This brief report summarizes equine influenza activity in South America, noting clinical presentation, transmission dynamics, and recent outbreaks. It reviews vaccination strategies, biosecurity measures, and surveillance needs for controlling spread. Practical guidance is provided for veterinarians and stable managers to reduce risk during regional circulation.
Aug 2017
Iclaprim is a novel bacterial dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor in Phase 3 clinical development for the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections and hospital acquired bacterial pneumonia caused by Gram-positve bacteria. Daptomycin, linezolid and vancomycin are commonly used antibiotic for these indications. With increase selective pressure to these generic antibiotics, outbreaks of bacterial resistance to these antibiotics have been reported. This in vitro study evaluated the activity of iclaprim against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates, which were also not susceptible to daptomycin, linezolid or vancomycin. Iclaprim had an MIC ≤1 µg/ml to the majority of MRSA isolates that were nonsusceptible to daptomycin (5 of 7 71.4%), linezolid (26 of 26 100%), or vancomycin (19 of 28 66.7%). In time-kill curves analyses, iclaprim demonstrated ≥3 log10 reduction in CFU/mL at 4-8 hours for tested strains and isolates nonsusceptible to linezolid or vancomycin. Together these data support the use of iclaprim in serious infections caused by MRSA nonsusceptible to daptomycin, linezolid or vancomycin.